Categorical › Logistic regression

Dynamic panel GMM (lagged dependent variable)

Dynamic panel GMM (Arellano-Bond / Blundell-Bond) estimates a model with a lagged dependent variable and entity effects using instrumental-variable GMM, with over-identification and serial-correlation diagnostics.

What is Dynamic panel GMM (lagged dependent variable)?

When an outcome depends on its own past (y_i,t-1) and on unobserved entity effects, ordinary fixed-effects and OLS are both biased (the lagged outcome is correlated with the demeaned error — the Nickell bias). Difference GMM first-differences the model to remove the entity effect, then instruments the lagged difference with earlier levels of the outcome (y_i,t-2 and before) that are uncorrelated with the differenced error.

The one-step estimator uses a fixed weight matrix; the two-step estimator uses an optimal weight from the one-step residuals and reports finite-sample-corrected standard errors. System GMM augments the differenced moment conditions with level equations instrumented by lagged differences, which helps when the series are persistent.

When should I use Dynamic panel GMM (lagged dependent variable)?

  • Short, wide panels (many entities, few periods) with a lagged dependent variable.
  • Persistent dynamics where fixed effects would be biased.

What data does it need?

Dependent variable + an entity index + a numeric, evenly spaced time index + optional exogenous regressors + one/two-step choice.

What does it report?

Coefficients (est / SE / z / p), the Sargan/Hansen over-identification test, Arellano-Bond AR(1) and AR(2) serial-correlation tests, and a joint Wald test.

What does it assume?

  • Balanced panel on a contiguous integer time grid, at least 3 periods per entity.
  • The idiosyncratic error is serially uncorrelated (so significant AR(2) is a red flag).
  • The lagged-level instruments are valid (checked by Sargan/Hansen).

How do I interpret the result?

A significant AR(1) but insignificant AR(2), together with a non-significant Sargan/Hansen test, supports the specification.

The lagged-dependent coefficient measures persistence; values near 1 indicate a highly persistent process.

See also

References

  • Arellano & Bond (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data. Review of Economic Studies 58: 277-297.
  • Blundell & Bond (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87: 115-143.
  • Windmeijer (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126: 25-51.