Survival › Time-to-event

Fine-Gray competing risks

Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards regression models the cumulative incidence of the event of interest when competing events can preclude it.

What is Fine-Gray competing risks?

Standard survival analysis (K-M, Cox PH) assumes censoring is non-informative. When a 'competing' event happens — death from another cause when the outcome of interest is cancer-specific death, for example — that subject is no longer at risk for the event of interest. Treating competing events as censoring biases K-M upward (overestimates incidence) and biases Cox PH in subtle ways.

Fine-Gray models the hazard of the *subdistribution* — the hazard of the event of interest, with subjects who experienced a competing event kept in the risk set indefinitely with downweighting. The result is a hazard ratio for the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which is the right population-level summary in the competing-risks setting.

Cox-on-cause-specific-hazard is the alternative: model the event of interest's hazard with competing events as censoring. Use it when you want the etiologic interpretation ('among those still at risk'); use Fine-Gray when you want the predictive / risk-management interpretation ('what fraction will experience this event by time t').

When should I use Fine-Gray competing risks?

  • Time-to-event data with at least one competing event that precludes the event of interest.
  • When you want to predict CIF or report covariate effects on CIF, not on the cause-specific hazard.

What data does it need?

Time + multi-state event (0 = censored, 1 = event of interest, ≥ 2 = competing) + predictors.

What does it report?

Subdistribution HR + CI + p per predictor.

What does it assume?

  • Independent observations.
  • Non-informative censoring.
  • Subdistribution proportional hazards (mostly untested in practice — model carefully).

How do I interpret the result?

SDHR > 1 ⇒ predictor increases the CIF of the event of interest. Unlike cause-specific HR, this is the right effect for absolute-risk communication.

If you also fit Cox-on-cause-specific-hazard for the same outcome, the two effects can differ — Fine-Gray attributes some of the apparent effect to changes in the competing-event hazard.

See also

References

  • Fine & Gray (1999). A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk. JASA 94(446).