Describe › Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation propagates uncertainty through a formula by drawing each input from its own distribution thousands of times and reporting the distribution of the result.

What is Monte Carlo simulation?

When a quantity is computed from several uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the result rarely has a closed form. The usual alternative — first-order propagation, adding partial derivatives in quadrature — assumes the model is near-linear over the range of the inputs and that the result is roughly normal. Simulation assumes neither: it just evaluates the model many times and looks at what comes out.

This is the method GUM Supplement 1 specifies for measurement uncertainty when the linear approximation is not safe, and the same machinery answers risk questions outside metrology — a cost built from uncertain components, a yield built from uncertain rates.

A seeded run is exactly reproducible. An unseeded one reports the seed it drew, so any result can be reproduced after the fact.

When should I use Monte Carlo simulation?

  • Combining several measured quantities whose uncertainties are known.
  • Any model where the output distribution is skewed, bounded, or otherwise not normal.
  • Checking whether a first-order uncertainty budget is trustworthy.

What data does it need?

A model written as an expression, plus a distribution for each named input. Operators + - * / ^ and sqrt, exp, ln, log10, abs, min and max are available.

What does it report?

The mean, SD, median, range and a coverage interval for the simulated output, with the seed used.

What does it assume?

  • The inputs are independent — correlation between them is not modelled.
  • The stated distributions are correct; the simulation propagates them faithfully but cannot check them.

See also

References

  • JCGM 101:2008. Evaluation of measurement data — Supplement 1 to the GUM: propagation of distributions using a Monte Carlo method.