Relate › Linear regression

Age-related reference interval

A covariate-adjusted reference interval regresses the analyte on a covariate and takes percentile bounds from the residual SD, so the limits move with age, sex or size.

What is Age-related reference interval?

Many lab analytes have normal ranges that vary with age, sex, or another covariate (haemoglobin by sex, eGFR by age, hormone levels by menstrual cycle). A single reference interval misclassifies a substantial fraction of healthy subjects at the extremes of the covariate distribution.

Royston-Wright fits a regression model y = f(x) + ε, where f is typically a polynomial (or fractional polynomial). The reference bounds at any x are mean(x) ± z·σ_residual, where σ_residual is the within-x standard deviation.

For positively-skewed analytes, log-transform y first; the bounds are back-transformed for reporting. The implementation flags via Shapiro-Wilk on the residuals when normality is suspect.

When should I use Age-related reference interval?

  • Paediatric reference ranges (analyte vs age).
  • Sex-specific or age-specific reference intervals.
  • Any analyte whose normal range depends on a continuous covariate.

What data does it need?

Numeric measurement + covariate + polynomial degree (1–3) + reference level + log-transform toggle.

What does it report?

80-point smoothed mean curve with dashed upper / lower bounds + 8-point lookup table + Shapiro-Wilk on residuals.

What does it assume?

  • Linear / polynomial mean structure.
  • Approximately normal residuals (Shapiro-Wilk flags when not — try log transform).
  • Constant within-x variance (check by visual fan of residuals).

How do I interpret the result?

Look up the bounds at the patient's specific covariate value to classify — not the marginal (covariate-ignored) bounds. The whole point is that ranges vary by covariate.

See also

References

  • Royston (1991). Constructing time-specific reference ranges. SiM 10.