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Structural VAR (SVAR) — impulse responses + FEVD

A structural VAR identified by a recursive (Cholesky) ordering produces orthogonalized impulse-response functions and a forecast-error variance decomposition, with optional bootstrap bands.

What is Structural VAR (SVAR) — impulse responses + FEVD?

A reduced-form VAR captures the dynamics of the system but its residuals are correlated, so a shock to one equation can't be interpreted in isolation. Identification imposes structure on how the reduced-form errors map to uncorrelated structural shocks. The recursive scheme (Sims 1980) factors the residual covariance as Σ = P·P′ with P lower-triangular (the Cholesky factor): the variable ordered first responds only to its own shock contemporaneously, the second to the first two, and so on.

Orthogonalized impulse responses Θ_h = Φ_h·P trace each variable's reaction over h periods to a one-standard-deviation structural shock, where Φ_h are the VAR's moving-average coefficients. The forecast-error variance decomposition (FEVD) splits each variable's h-step forecast-error variance into the share attributable to each structural shock.

When should I use Structural VAR (SVAR) — impulse responses + FEVD?

  • Tracing how a shock to one series propagates through a multivariate system.
  • Attributing forecast uncertainty of each variable to the different shocks (FEVD).

What data does it need?

≥ 2 numeric series (row order = time) + lag order p + horizon + deterministic terms + an optional Cholesky ordering.

What does it report?

The lower-triangular impact matrix P, orthogonalized impulse responses (optionally with a bootstrap band), and the forecast-error variance decomposition at each horizon.

What does it assume?

  • The reduced-form VAR is correctly specified and stable.
  • The recursive ordering encodes a defensible contemporaneous causal chain — results depend on it.
  • Structural shocks are orthogonal and unit-variance.

How do I interpret the result?

The variable ordering is an identifying assumption, not an estimate: reorder the series and the short-horizon responses change. Later-ordered variables cannot affect earlier ones on impact.

FEVD shares for a variable sum to 100% at every horizon.

See also

References

  • Lütkepohl (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer (§2.3.2–2.3.3, Ch. 9).
  • Sims (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica 48(1).